Bellevue Perspectives

Monday Minute

  • The markets sold off again to end last week on continued fear of the coronavirus impact and spread.  Amid the disturbing virus-spread headlines last week however, there were also data points highlighting the positive, lagged impact of lower interest rates (from central bank easings, to lower mtg rates, and low corporate bond yields) helping support/turn up economic growth.  Markit’s U.S. Composite Future Output Index rose, The Philly and Empire mfg indices both rose in February, U.S. housing starts dropped in January, but they beat expectations and were still up over 20% yoy, U.S. consumer confidence remains very resilient, and Q4 corporate earnings were strong.  There will surely be more fear and disruption and there is additional downside risk to Q1 GDP, but a rebound is likely once the virus outbreak fades.

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